Strong signal coming from Germany - AfD victory and the collapse of the barrier to the far right
The strong result of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt is more than an electoral success in an eastern German state. It reinforces a trend that has been increasingly visible in Europe for several years: the rise of populist and nationalist forces at the expense of traditional parties.
The AfD has not secured a majority and is not expected to govern alone, as the main parties continue to refuse to cooperate with it. However, its electoral weight is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
That's exactly what makes the result important. The question is not just whether the AfD can form a government today, but how long German politics can remain behind a "cordon sanitaire" if support for the party continues to grow.
The AfD's success cannot be explained by ideology alone. Behind it lie a series of dissatisfactions that are recurring in many European countries: the rising cost of living, economic problems, social insecurity, immigration, and the loss of trust in traditional parties.
In this climate, far-right parties have found favorable ground by presenting themselves as an alternative to the political establishment.
In Germany, the result is both a warning to the CDU and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. If the government fails to address economic problems and voter concerns, a portion of the electorate could continue to shift towards the AfD.
This creates a dilemma for the center-right: how to win back voters without copying the rhetoric of the far right?
The phenomenon is not isolated. In France, Marine Le Pen and the National Rally aim to exploit discontent with traditional politics. France could be one of the most important tests for Europe's political future, as a major success for the far right in one of the EU's founding countries would have consequences beyond domestic politics.
In Spain, Vox is strengthening its position and could become an important factor in forming the next government. If the traditional right fails to achieve a majority, pressure to cooperate with Vox could increase.
This would be an important development, because it would bring a far-right party even closer to central government in one of the EU's major economies.
Italy presents a different model. Giorgia Meloni has shown that a political force with roots in the radical right can move from opposition to government and try to normalize itself on the European stage.
Meloni's approach has been more pragmatic in relation to the EU and foreign policy, allowing him to build more stable relationships with European partners.
But this has also created another dynamic: the more a right-wing force enters the system, the more it may face competition from even more radical forces. Immigration remains one area where this competition for the right-wing electorate is particularly evident.
In Britain, Reform UK has capitalized on discontent with immigration, the economy and traditional parties. But divisions and competition within the right show that rising polls do not automatically guarantee the ability to build a governing majority.
Hungary, on the other hand, shows that even a long-standing populist government can become vulnerable. The loss of Viktor Orbán and Fidesz after a long period in power shows that economic discontent, corruption, and electoral fatigue can bring down even seemingly consolidated parties.
The rise of the far right should not be seen only as an ideological shift in the European electorate. It is also a crisis of the traditional political offer. When citizens feel insecure about their jobs, income, immigration or economic future, they become more willing to vote for alternatives that promise rapid change.
For traditional parties, the challenge is not simply to warn about the dangers of extremism. They must offer concrete solutions to the problems that are fueling this vote. Otherwise, the political barrier to the far right may continue to weaken.
The AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt does not mean that the far right has taken power in Germany. But it shows that its electoral boundaries are expanding. And that is the most important message for Europe.
From Germany to France, from Spain to Italy to Britain, populist parties are taking advantage of the same weaknesses: the economy, immigration, insecurity and a crisis of trust in institutions. The question now is not whether the far right can win votes. It is already winning them.
The question is whether traditional parties will manage to restore the trust of citizens before these forces turn from a powerful opposition into a real governing alternative.
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