“Greece's fiscal sustainability improves”/ IMF: Strong investments and structural reforms are supporting growth

Greece has weathered the shock of the Middle East war with improved fiscal sustainability and financial stability, the International Monetary Fund says, adding that reforms to combat tax evasion have given the government room for measures that support household incomes while rapidly reducing public debt.
The energy price shock from the Middle East war is a major headwind, but strong investment and structural reforms under the Next Generation EU (NGEU) are supporting growth. Recent reforms to reduce tax evasion have broadened the tax base and reduced the shadow economy, creating space to support household disposable incomes while ensuring a rapid reduction in public debt.
The 2026 Financial Sector Assessment Program, the first since 2006, finds that systemic risks in the financial sector were low before the war and remain manageable. GDP growth is projected to decline to 1.8% in 2026. Despite support from higher public investment and household support measures, high energy prices and weak external demand due to the war will negatively impact private consumption and tourism.
In the medium term, growth is projected to decline to 1.5%, in a context of a shrinking working-age population with low labor force participation and sluggish productivity growth. Risks are on the downside, stemming mainly from a protracted war, an escalation of geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation, while domestic risks include delays in the implementation of NGEU-financed projects. Upside risks to inflation arise from further increases in commodity prices, wage growth outstripping labor productivity growth, and higher costs related to climate shocks.
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