"The Arctic may remain without ice in 2027" - Scientists warn of the global consequences of this phenomenon
While most Arctic Ocean forecasts have focused on month-by-month ice conditions, a new study has found that its complete melt may occur sooner than expected. Previous analyzes had predicted the loss of Arctic ice around 2030, but these results show that day could come as late as summer 2027. Another nine simulations, though less likely, predict it could happen in three to in the next six years.
The scientists, from the study published in Nature Communications, say that the Arctic's first ice-free day is inevitable and irreversible, no matter how humans change greenhouse gas emissions.
The Arctic Ocean covers a vast area of more than 16 million square kilometers and for thousands of years, it has witnessed a natural seasonal event: layers of frozen water form during the winter months a thick sheet of ice that peaks in March and beyond. after melting in September. However, in recent decades, this event has been less prevalent.
The ice has been shrinking by more than 12 percent every decade since 1978, when satellite images began recording changes in the Arctic Ocean, losing about 80,000 square kilometers each year, about the size of Austria or the Czech Republic.
In the long term, the lack of ice can significantly affect the fragile ecosystem of the northernmost ocean and beyond. The sun never sets in the Arctic during the summer, so without ice to reflect light into space, the ocean will absorb and scatter a significant amount of heat around the Earth.
International waters have no jurisdiction, so commercial industries can take advantage of the opportunities, by fishing or finding a faster shipping route through the Northwest Passage. Warming can also lead to more erratic and extreme weather events through changing wind and ocean current patterns.
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